Keith
Hunter
Bushfire close but safe now. Getting some good rain.
Posts: 1,002 
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Post by Keith on Mar 22, 2020 15:30:54 GMT -7
We now have 3 reported positives - all 3 likely acquired the illness while traveling internationally and are being quarantined. No community-acquired cases thus far. However, some people are still behaving stupidly..."Don't try to understand them; and don't try to make them understand you. For they are a breed apart and make no sense." Natty Bumppo, Last of the Mohicans. Keith. |
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Post by hawkeyes on Mar 22, 2020 16:34:40 GMT -7
Our Governor has declared a state wide quarantine starting tomorrow at 11:59. Our rural county still remains at zero cases and God willing I pray it remains that way.
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Post by spence on Mar 22, 2020 17:21:08 GMT -7
I'm afraid it will not. When a new infectious disease is introduced into a population with no immunity, no therapy and no vaccine, by far the majority of people will get the disease. Most things we can do only change the timing of the spread, not the amount of it, not the percentage of the population who ultimately are infected. This one will probably be with us until either therapy or vaccine is available, and that may be years, not weeks or months.
Spence
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Post by Black Hand on Mar 22, 2020 17:46:48 GMT -7
At this point, it is unknown if one can become reinfected. Immunology says no if antibodies are produced, but if this is a highly mutable virus, it may be possible. There may also be a subset of the population that is less susceptible or even immune. So many questions...
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Post by brokennock on Mar 22, 2020 17:54:00 GMT -7
Numbers are declining in places (countries) that had it early and have taken measures to limit its spread. By per capita numbers the majority of population does not seem likely to get it. More people will get it than the flu and other viruses that have gone around before, this is true. China's population is how big? They are currently at 1 to 10 cases per 100,000 people, down from 1 to 10 per 10,000. While we have not seen a peak, and won't for another month or two, if we can limit the number of cases by stopping new cases coming in from outside and doing what we can to limit new cases passed from person to person, I really don't think the majority of the population will get it. The majority of the population of an individual city/town/even county? Maybe, solid possibility. But the majority of a state or the nation, doubt it. Not saying it's impossible, just not likey.
Virus outbreaks do often die out on there own. Look at Ebola, which os far more contagious and deadly than this. It shows up, infects and kills a bunch of people, then disappears..... until next time.
As of last night, Italy was at 1 to 10 cases per 10,000 people for most of the country. Unfortunately they do have places with 1 case per 1,000 people. Those are bad numbers. But, a number of factors we don't have here combine to make the problem as bad as it is there.
We all need to do our part to not wind up like Italy.
Stay healthy everyone.
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Post by brokennock on Mar 22, 2020 17:56:18 GMT -7
At this point, it is unknown if one can become reinfected. Immunology says no if antibodies are produced, but if this is a highly mutable virus, it may be possible. There may also be a subset of the population that is less susceptible or even immune. So many questions... They seem to be having good results treating with convalescent plasma. This encourages me that reinfection, with this strain, of the virus seems unlikely. |
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Keith
Hunter
Bushfire close but safe now. Getting some good rain.
Posts: 1,002
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Post by Keith on Mar 22, 2020 19:15:59 GMT -7
I'm afraid it will not. When a new infectious disease is introduced into a population with no immunity, no therapy and no vaccine, by far the majority of people will get the disease. Most things we can do only change the timing of the spread, not the amount of it, not the percentage of the population who ultimately are infected. This one will probably be with us until either therapy or vaccine is available, and that may be years, not weeks or months. Spence It seems to be a general consensus that this coronavirus is here to stay. It may abate, but like the flue it will return. Keith. |
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Keith
Hunter
Bushfire close but safe now. Getting some good rain.
Posts: 1,002
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Post by Keith on Mar 22, 2020 19:18:19 GMT -7
At this point, it is unknown if one can become reinfected. Immunology says no if antibodies are produced, but if this is a highly mutable virus, it may be possible. There may also be a subset of the population that is less susceptible or even immune. So many questions... In China they have already had cases of reinfection, but they also say that two other strains of this virus have come to light, so maybe that is the cause of the reinfection. Keith. |
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Post by Black Hand on Mar 22, 2020 19:23:04 GMT -7
This is just another member of a known virus family (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronaviridae) - just happens to be highly infectious with associated mortality. It is an RNA virus (as is Influenza) which may account for the mutation - RNA is quirky and error-prone when replicating. www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3127101/ |
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Post by Richard on Mar 22, 2020 22:23:35 GMT -7
We have been shut down here in Pennsylvania for a week now, only grocery stores, gas stations, banks and take-out food. The banks are ATM, and drive-thru only. I have to call tomorrow to see if I can access my safe deposit box. My Wife and I (both 77) have been going hiking at a State Park 3 days a week, and walking in the neighborhood most other days, to keep active. We bought a case of cabernet two days before the liquor stores closed, and can resupply that on-line. I have enough whiskey and other liquor to last for a few years. And 8 or 9 Mega rolls of toilet paper!! (TP sales are limited - 2 packages per person. Problem is finding any on the shelves. Clerk told me to come at 7 a.m. when the store opens. I said I'll be in the parking lot at 7:30, and rob the first person coming out with 3 packages of TP.) One of my daughters works at an Audubon Nature Reserve, and when this all started all their restrooms were cleaned out of toilet paper! I suspect if you need to stop at a roadside rest facility on the Interstate, you better bring your own toilet paper. Two hardest things to find around here are TP and ammunition.
Stay safe, and healthy.
Richard/Grumpa
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Post by Sicilianhunter on Mar 23, 2020 7:05:01 GMT -7
Nock,
That level of herd mentality stupidity in NY is exactly why I left long ago!!
We moved the testing/triage station over to Balloon Fiesta park which is a state event center that has better utilities and way more room.
Word from the Docs is that they predict that this will be operational into july/august.
Best advice is what you mentioned: keep your distance (6'), masks offer barrier protection from droplets if you are that close for whatever reason but other than that they are pretty useless.
A surgical mask under best conditions will give you about an hour's worth of protection and an N95 about 6 and that is only if you have not had droplet contact.
Wash your hands a lot, don't touch your face, keep a space cushion from people that are suspect and LOVE thy neighbor.
I pray for all off us!!
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Post by brokennock on Mar 23, 2020 19:49:17 GMT -7
Reminder: (and warning of potential political incorrectness)
Consensus, without individual, independent, research, is NOT science. It is how we got a bunch of people believing a bunch of other bovine bowel bulbs, that are now being forced down thinking peoples throats.
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Post by Black Hand on Mar 23, 2020 19:56:17 GMT -7
No matter how strongly someone believes something or how many believe something is no indication of "truth". Without evidence, it is just wishful or magical thinking. Show me the data!
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Post by brokennock on Mar 23, 2020 20:13:30 GMT -7
I want the data, without opinion. But, sometimes, as with this virus, I think some perspective is needed too. If one is to announce the number of cases and/or the number of deaths from this virus, they should also be letting people know the population of the group (country/city/county/state) that number comes out of.
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Post by Sicilianhunter on Mar 24, 2020 7:14:31 GMT -7
I want the data, without opinion. But, sometimes, as with this virus, I think some perspective is needed too. If one is to announce the number of cases and/or the number of deaths from this virus, they should also be letting people know the population of the group (country/city/county/state) that number comes out of. Nock, I agree 1000% !! The first casualty of this crisis was common sense and the second was basic mathematics. What we are seeing here in NM is those elected officials that are supposed to be LEADING during this crisis are instead following the same agendas of Blue states regardless of relevancy to OUR condition. Compared to the numbers of those tested, the numbers of those confirmed cases are low. Incompetence and ASSUMED authority are a detriment to all of us here. |
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